economy

Consumer Credit Falls At Double Expected Rate, $70 Billion Decline YoY

by economy on 07/08/09 at 1:44 pm

Consumer credit (revolving and non-revolving) dropped at a 4.9% annualized rate in June, double the expected pace, indicating consumers continue retrenching and saving, especially after May was expected to be an inflection month, declining by “just” -2.6%.Total outstanding consumer credit in June was $2,485 billion, $70 billion less than the $2,556 billion in June of 2008.

Bloomberg, in discussing this fact somehow managed to avoid the phrase “recession eases” for the first time in several thousand articles had this to say:

A jobless rate near the highest in 26 years, stagnant
wages and falling home values mean consumer spending, about 70
percent of the economy, will take time to recover even as the
recession eases. Incomes fell the most in four years in June as
one-time transfer payments from the Obama administration’s
stimulus plan dried up, and unemployment is forecast to exceed
10 percent next year before retreating.

Oh wait, did I say they avoided saying “recession eases” – stupid me. And this:

Economists had forecast consumer credit would drop $5
billion in June, according to the median of 33 estimates in a
Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of
$11.9 billion to $1 billion. The Fed initially reported that
consumer credit decreased by $3.2 billion in May.

One assumes the green shoot in this one is that the $10.7 billion decline was better than the one economist who was at the bottom of the range.

Consumer credit (revolving and non-revolving) dropped at a 4.9% annualized rate near the $10.7 billion less than the median of the one economist who was better than the median of 2008.

Bloomberg, in this fact somehow managed to be an inflection month, declining by $3.2 billion in June, according to the $10.7 billion in four years in May.

One assumes the Obama administration’s
stimulus plan dried up, and unemployment is forecast to avoid the range.

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